n o ren
Human Performance & Leadership

Stop Punishing Near Misses

What if rewarding failures is less effective than learning from near successes?

2026-07-142 min read

When we think about improving performance, we often focus on analyzing failures to avoid similar mistakes in the future. However, this approach overlooks a crucial aspect of learning: understanding what went right. Near misses, or situations where things almost went wrong but didn't, offer valuable insights into the factors that contributed to a successful outcome. By studying these near misses, we can identify the underlying factors that led to success and reinforce them to improve overall performance. This approach is counterintuitive because it requires us to shift our attention from failures to near successes, and to reward the behaviors and decisions that led to those successes.

The mechanism behind this approach is rooted in the concept of "almost failures," which are situations where things could have gone wrong but didn't due to a combination of factors such as luck, skill, or circumstance. By analyzing these almost failures, we can identify the specific factors that contributed to the successful outcome and develop strategies to replicate them in the future. For example, the aviation industry has long recognized the value of analyzing near misses to improve safety. By studying these incidents, airlines and regulatory bodies can identify potential hazards and develop protocols to mitigate them, reducing the risk of accidents.

A vivid anchor for this concept is the story of the Gimli Glider, a Boeing 767 that ran out of fuel mid-flight in 1983. Despite the critical situation, the pilots were able to glide the plane to a safe landing, thanks to a combination of skill, experience, and luck. By analyzing this near miss, the aviation industry was able to identify specific factors that contributed to the successful outcome, such as the pilots' training and experience, and develop strategies to improve safety protocols. This approach has since been adopted by other industries, including healthcare and finance, to improve performance and reduce the risk of errors.

The twist in this approach is that it requires us to rethink our traditional notions of success and failure. By focusing on near misses and almost failures, we can develop a more nuanced understanding of what contributes to success and improve our overall performance. This approach also highlights the importance of learning from experience, rather than simply rewarding or punishing outcomes. By adopting this approach, organizations can create a culture of continuous learning and improvement, where employees are encouraged to share their experiences and insights to improve overall performance.

Key insights
Near misses offer valuable insights into the factors that contribute to success, and can help organizations develop more effective risk management strategies.
Analyzing near misses requires a nuanced understanding of the complex factors that contribute to success, and a willingness to learn from experience.
By focusing on near misses, organizations can create a culture of continuous learning and improvement, where employees are encouraged to share their experiences and insights.
The aviation industry's approach to analyzing near misses can be applied to other industries, such as healthcare and finance, to improve safety and reduce errors.
Why it matters

If we ignore the insights from near misses, we risk overlooking critical factors that contribute to success, and may repeat the same mistakes over and over.

By learning from near misses, we can develop a more proactive approach to risk management, anticipating and mitigating potential hazards before they become major problems.

Use this tomorrow
1
Review your last 10 project post-mortems and identify the near misses that occurred during each project, to understand what factors contributed to the successful outcomes.
2
Develop a system to track and analyze near misses in your organization, to identify patterns and trends that can inform future decision-making.
Go deeper

The concept of near misses has been extensively studied in the field of psychology, where it is known as the "near miss effect." Research has shown that people tend to overestimate the importance of near misses, and underestimate the role of luck in achieving success. By understanding this bias, organizations can develop more effective strategies for learning from experience and improving performance.

The near miss approach has been applied in a variety of contexts, including healthcare, finance, and aviation. In each of these industries, analyzing near misses has helped to identify potential hazards and develop protocols to mitigate them, reducing the risk of errors and improving overall performance.