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Economics & Markets

Don't Chase Network Effects Blindly

Firms often prioritize network effects over profitability.

The pursuit of network effects can be a double-edged sword for businesses. On one hand, it can create a self-reinforcing cycle of growth, where more users attract even more users. However, this relentless focus on network effects can lead companies to sacrifice profitability in the process. By subsidizing user acquisition and retention, firms may inadvertently create a false narrative of success, where user growth is mistaken for genuine value creation.

The mechanism behind this phenomenon is rooted in the way network effects are typically measured and incentivized. For instance, a company like eBay, which relies heavily on network effects to drive its business, may prioritize user growth over revenue per user. In a hypothetical scenario, a 10-person team at a startup might focus on increasing their user base by 20% each quarter, even if it means operating at a loss. This approach can create a temporary illusion of success, but ultimately, it may not be sustainable in the long term.

The twist is that prioritizing network effects over profitability can have unintended consequences, such as attracting low-value users who do not contribute significantly to revenue. This can lead to a situation where the company is forced to continually subsidize these users, creating a vicious cycle of unprofitability. Furthermore, the focus on network effects can also distract from other critical aspects of the business, such as product development and customer support, ultimately eroding the company's competitive advantage.

Prioritizing network effects can create a false narrative of success.
Focusing on user growth can lead to a situation where low-value users are subsidized.
The relentless pursuit of network effects can distract from other critical aspects of the business.

Ignoring the potential drawbacks of prioritizing network effects can lead to a situation where a company's growth is not sustainable in the long term.

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Open your last 10 quarterly reports and count how many times user growth is mentioned as a key metric, compared to revenue per user or profitability.

The concept of network effects was first introduced by Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet, who observed that the value of a network grows exponentially with the number of users. However, this idea has been misapplied in many cases, where companies prioritize user growth over profitability.

A more nuanced approach to network effects involves recognizing that not all users are created equal. By focusing on high-value users and creating a positive feedback loop of value creation, companies can create a more sustainable business model.